Analyzing the Geopolitical Consequences of Afghan Refugees in Iran

Human mobility is one of the persistent realities of human history, shaped by various factors such as armed conflicts, economic crises, and the search for better life opportunities (Esses et al., 2017: 385). In recent decades, migration has become a major global challenge due to its increasing scale and complexity. Afghanistan, because of more than four decades of continuous conflict and political instability, has been one of the largest sources of forced migration in the world. The Islamic Republic of Iran has hosted millions of Afghan migrants and refugees for more than four decades and has experienced one of the longest urban refugee-hosting situations globally (Abbasi-Shavazi, 2016: 35). Prior to the large-scale expulsions of 2025, the Afghan population in Iran was estimated to be between 4 and 6 million people.
Migration is often conceptualized as movement from a place of origin to a destination, or from the place of birth to another location across international borders. For instance, measuring global bilateral migration flows is often based on movement from a country other than one’s usual place of residence for at least one year, such that the destination country becomes the migrant’s new usual place of residence. The consequences of migration are often not predetermined due to various stages of uncertainty that may arise, which can discourage the motivation for relocation. When a host society receives forced migrants (asylum seekers and refugees), it is often unprepared to accept new arrivals due to the need to protect its limited shared resources within its territory, such as land, water, housing facilities, natural and mineral resources